A prognostic model to predict survival after 6 months of ruxolitinib in patients with myelofibrosis

Key Points

• RUX dose, spleen response, and transfusion requirement in the first 6 months of RUX treatment predict overall survival in MF.

• The RR6 model overcomes conventional risk stratification in RUX-treated MF.

Abstract

Ruxolitinib (RUX) is extensively used in myelofibrosis (MF). Despite its early efficacy, most patients lose response over time and, after discontinuation, have a worse overall survival (OS). Currently, response criteria able to predict OS in RUX-treated patients are lacking, leading to uncertainty regarding the switch to second-line treatments. In this study, we investigated predictors of survival collected after 6 months of RUX in 209 MF patients participating in the real-world ambispective observational RUXOREL-MF study (NCT03959371). Multivariable analysis identified the following risk factors: (1) RUX dose <20 mg twice daily at baseline, months 3 and 6 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-3.00; P = .03), (2) palpable spleen length reduction from baseline ≤30% at months 3 and 6 (HR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.40-3.65; P = .0009), (3) red blood cell (RBC) transfusion need at months 3 and/or 6 (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.95-2.88; P = .07), and (4) RBC transfusion need at all time points (ie, baseline and months 3 and 6; HR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.19-4.54; P = .02). Hence, we developed a prognostic model, named Response to Ruxolitinib After 6 Months (RR6), dissecting 3 risk categories: low (median OS, not reached), intermediate (median OS, 61 months; 95% CI, 43-80), and high (median OS, 33 months; 95% CI, 21-50). The RR6 model was validated and confirmed in an external cohort comprised of 40 MF patients. In conclusion, the RR6 prognostic model allows for the early identification of RUX-treated MF patients with impaired survival who might benefit from a prompt treatment shift.