This study predicts the burden of incident osteoporosis-related fractures and costs
in the United States, by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, and fracture type, from 2005
to 2025. Total fractures were >2 million, costing nearly $17 billion in 2005. Men
account for >25% of the burden. Rapid growth in the disease burden is projected among
nonwhite populations.
The aging of the U.S. population will likely lead to greater prevalence of osteoporosis.
Policy makers require precise projections of the disease burden by demographic subgroups
and skeletal sites to effectively target osteoporosis intervention and treatment programs.
A state transition Markov decision model was used to estimate total incident fractures
and costs by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and skeletal site for the U.S. population 50
years of age for 2005-2025.
More than 2 million incident fractures at a cost of $17 billion are predicted for
2005. Total costs including prevalent fractures are more than $19 billion. Men account
for 29% of fractures and 25% of costs. Total incident fractures by skeletal site were
vertebral (27%), wrist (19%), hip (14%), pelvic (7%), and other (33%). Total costs
by fracture type were vertebral (6%), hip (72%), wrist (3%), pelvic (5%), and other
(14%). By 2025, annual fractures and costs are projected to rise by almost 50%. The
most rapid growth is estimated for people 65-74 years of age, with an increase>87%.
An increase of nearly 175% is projected for Hispanic and other subpopulations.
Osteoporosis prevention, treatment, and education efforts should address all skeletal
sites, not just hip and vertebral, and appropriate attention is warranted for men
and diverse race/ethnicity subgroups.