Predict the incidence of Guillain Barré Syndrome and arbovirus infection in Mexico, 2014–2019

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Abstract

The Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and Chikungunya (CHIKV) virus infections have been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). GBS has an estimated lethality of 4% to 8%, even with effective treatment. Mexico is considered a hyperendemic country for DENV due to the circulation of four serotypes, and the ZIKV and CHIKV viruses have also been circulating in the country. The objective of this study was to predict the number of GBS cases in relation to the cumulative incidence of ZIKV / DENV / CHIKV in Mexico from 2014 to 2019. A six-year time series ecological study was carried out from GBS cases registered in the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) Epidemiological Surveillance System (ESS), and DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV estimated cases from cases registered in the epidemiological vector-borne diseases surveillance system. The results shows that the incidence of GBS in Mexico is positively correlated with DENV and ZIKV. For every 1,000 estimated DENV cases, 1.45 GBS cases occurred on average, and for every 1,000 estimated ZIKV cases, 1.93 GBS cases occurred on average. A negative correlation between GBS and CHIKV estimated cases was found. The increase in the incidence of GBS cases in Mexico can be predicted by observing DENV and ZIKV cases through the epidemiological surveillance systems. These results can be useful in public health by providing the opportunity to improve capacities for the prevention of arbovirus diseases and for the timely procurement of supplies for the treatment of GBS.

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Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial

James Lopez Bernal, Steven Cummins, Antonio Gasparrini (2016)

Abstract Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a valuable study design for evaluating the effectiveness of population-level health interventions that have been implemented at a clearly defined point in time. It is increasingly being used to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions ranging from clinical therapy to national public health legislation. Whereas the design shares many properties of regression-based approaches in other epidemiological studies, there are a range of unique features of time series data that require additional methodological considerations. In this tutorial we use a worked example to demonstrate a robust approach to ITS analysis using segmented regression. We begin by describing the design and considering when ITS is an appropriate design choice. We then discuss the essential, yet often omitted, step of proposing the impact model a priori. Subsequently, we demonstrate the approach to statistical analysis including the main segmented regression model. Finally we describe the main methodological issues associated with ITS analysis: over-dispersion of time series data, autocorrelation, adjusting for seasonal trends and controlling for time-varying confounders, and we also outline some of the more complex design adaptations that can be used to strengthen the basic ITS design.

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Guillain-Barré syndrome.

Hugh J Willison, Bart C. Jacobs, Pieter A van Doorn (2016)

Guillain-Barré syndrome is the most common and most severe acute paralytic neuropathy, with about 100,000 people developing the disorder every year worldwide. Under the umbrella term of Guillain-Barré syndrome are several recognisable variants with distinct clinical and pathological features. The severe, generalised manifestation of Guillain-Barré syndrome with respiratory failure affects 20-30% of cases. Treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin or plasma exchange is the optimal management approach, alongside supportive care. Understanding of the infectious triggers and immunological and pathological mechanisms has advanced substantially in the past 10 years, and is guiding clinical trials investigating new treatments. Investigators of large, worldwide, collaborative studies of the spectrum of Guillain-Barré syndrome are accruing data for clinical and biological databases to inform the development of outcome predictors and disease biomarkers. Such studies are transforming the clinical and scientific landscape of acute autoimmune neuropathies.

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Diagnosis and management of Guillain–Barré syndrome in ten steps

Sonja Leonhard, Melissa Mandarakas, Francisco A. A. Gondim … (2019)

Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare, but potentially fatal, immune-mediated disease of the peripheral nerves and nerve roots that is usually triggered by infections. The incidence of GBS can therefore increase during outbreaks of infectious diseases, as was seen during the Zika virus epidemics in 2013 in French Polynesia and 2015 in Latin America. Diagnosis and management of GBS can be complicated as its clinical presentation and disease course are heterogeneous, and no international clinical guidelines are currently available. To support clinicians, especially in the context of an outbreak, we have developed a globally applicable guideline for the diagnosis and management of GBS. The guideline is based on current literature and expert consensus, and has a ten-step structure to facilitate its use in clinical practice. We first provide an introduction to the diagnostic criteria, clinical variants and differential diagnoses of GBS. The ten steps then cover early recognition and diagnosis of GBS, admission to the intensive care unit, treatment indication and selection, monitoring and treatment of disease progression, prediction of clinical course and outcome, and management of complications and sequelae.