Dynamically Controlled Environment Agriculture: Integrating Machine Learning and Mechanistic and Physiological Models for Sustainable Food Cultivation

Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100-110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ~1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO(2)-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ~3 Gt y(-1) and N use ~250 Mt y(-1) by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ~0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ~1 Gt y(-1), and global N use of ~225 Mt y(-1). Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.

With increasing demand to support and accelerate progress in breeding for novel traits, the plant research community faces the need to accurately measure increasingly large numbers of plants and plant parameters. The goal is to provide quantitative analyses of plant structure and function relevant for traits that help plants better adapt to low-input agriculture and resource-limited environments. We provide an overview of the inherently multidisciplinary research in plant phenotyping, focusing on traits that will assist in selecting genotypes with increased resource use efficiency. We highlight opportunities and challenges for integrating noninvasive or minimally invasive technologies into screening protocols to characterize plant responses to environmental challenges for both controlled and field experimentation. Although technology evolves rapidly, parallel efforts are still required because large-scale phenotyping demands accurate reporting of at least a minimum set of information concerning experimental protocols, data management schemas, and integration with modeling. The journey toward systematic plant phenotyping has only just begun.