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Abstract
There is evidence that pollinators are declining as a result of local and global environmental
degradation [1-4]. Because a sizable proportion of the human diet depends directly
or indirectly on animal pollination [5], the issue of how decreases in pollinator
stocks could affect global crop production is of paramount importance [6-8]. Using
the extensive FAO data set [9], we compared 45 year series (1961-2006) in yield, and
total production and cultivated area of pollinator-dependent and nondependent crops
[5]. We investigated temporal trends separately for the developed and developing world
because differences in agricultural intensification, and socioeconomic and environmental
conditions might affect yield and pollinators [10-13]. Since 1961, crop yield (Mt/ha)
has increased consistently at average annual growth rates of approximately 1.5%. Temporal
trends were similar between pollinator-dependent and nondependent crops in both the
developed and developing world, thus not supporting the view that pollinator shortages
are affecting crop yield at the global scale. We further report, however, that agriculture
has become more pollinator dependent because of a disproportionate increase in the
area cultivated with pollinator-dependent crops. If the trend toward favoring cultivation
of pollinator-dependent crops continues, the need for the service provided by declining
pollinators will greatly increase in the near future.