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      Ten simple rules for the computational modeling of behavioral data

      review-article
      1 , 2 , , 3 , 4 ,
      eLife
      eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
      computational modeling, model fitting, validation, reproducibility

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          Abstract

          Computational modeling of behavior has revolutionized psychology and neuroscience. By fitting models to experimental data we can probe the algorithms underlying behavior, find neural correlates of computational variables and better understand the effects of drugs, illness and interventions. But with great power comes great responsibility. Here, we offer ten simple rules to ensure that computational modeling is used with care and yields meaningful insights. In particular, we present a beginner-friendly, pragmatic and details-oriented introduction on how to relate models to data. What, exactly, can a model tell us about the mind? To answer this, we apply our rules to the simplest modeling techniques most accessible to beginning modelers and illustrate them with examples and code available online. However, most rules apply to more advanced techniques. Our hope is that by following our guidelines, researchers will avoid many pitfalls and unleash the power of computational modeling on their own data.

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          Most cited references66

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          A framework for mesencephalic dopamine systems based on predictive Hebbian learning.

          We develop a theoretical framework that shows how mesencephalic dopamine systems could distribute to their targets a signal that represents information about future expectations. In particular, we show how activity in the cerebral cortex can make predictions about future receipt of reward and how fluctuations in the activity levels of neurons in diffuse dopamine systems above and below baseline levels would represent errors in these predictions that are delivered to cortical and subcortical targets. We present a model for how such errors could be constructed in a real brain that is consistent with physiological results for a subset of dopaminergic neurons located in the ventral tegmental area and surrounding dopaminergic neurons. The theory also makes testable predictions about human choice behavior on a simple decision-making task. Furthermore, we show that, through a simple influence on synaptic plasticity, fluctuations in dopamine release can act to change the predictions in an appropriate manner.
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            Rational regulation of learning dynamics by pupil–linked arousal systems

            The ability to make inferences about the current state of a dynamic process requires ongoing assessments of the stability and reliability of data generated by that process. We found that these assessments, as defined by a normative model, were reflected in non–luminance–mediated changes in pupil diameter of human subjects performing a predictive–inference task. Brief changes in pupil diameter reflected assessed instabilities in a process that generated noisy data. Baseline pupil diameter reflected the reliability with which recent data indicated the current state of the data–generating process and individual differences in expectations about the rate of instabilities. Together these pupil metrics predicted the influence of new data on subsequent inferences. Moreover, a task– and luminance–independent manipulation of pupil diameter predictably altered the influence of new data. Thus, pupil–linked arousal systems can help regulate the influence of incoming data on existing beliefs in a dynamic environment.
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              Bayesian hypothesis testing for psychologists: a tutorial on the Savage-Dickey method.

              In the field of cognitive psychology, the p-value hypothesis test has established a stranglehold on statistical reporting. This is unfortunate, as the p-value provides at best a rough estimate of the evidence that the data provide for the presence of an experimental effect. An alternative and arguably more appropriate measure of evidence is conveyed by a Bayesian hypothesis test, which prefers the model with the highest average likelihood. One of the main problems with this Bayesian hypothesis test, however, is that it often requires relatively sophisticated numerical methods for its computation. Here we draw attention to the Savage-Dickey density ratio method, a method that can be used to compute the result of a Bayesian hypothesis test for nested models and under certain plausible restrictions on the parameter priors. Practical examples demonstrate the method's validity, generality, and flexibility. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Reviewing Editor
                Journal
                eLife
                Elife
                eLife
                eLife
                eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
                2050-084X
                26 November 2019
                2019
                : 8
                : e49547
                Affiliations
                [1 ]deptDepartment of Psychology University of Arizona TucsonUnited States
                [2 ]deptCognitive Science Program University of Arizona TucsonUnited States
                [3 ]deptDepartment of Psychology University of California, Berkeley BerkeleyUnited States
                [4 ]deptHelen Wills Neuroscience Institute University of California, Berkeley BerkeleyUnited States
                University of Oxford United Kingdom
                Author notes
                [†]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2963-2971
                https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3751-3662
                Article
                49547
                10.7554/eLife.49547
                6879303
                31769410
                a6ab5fb2-4081-4e1a-bbb7-37088989770a
                © 2019, Wilson and Collins

                This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use and redistribution provided that the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 26 June 2019
                : 09 October 2019
                Funding
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000049, National Institute on Aging;
                Award ID: R56 AG061888
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, National Science Foundation;
                Award ID: 1640885
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: FundRef http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000025, National Institute of Mental Health;
                Award ID: R01 MH118279
                Award Recipient :
                The funders had no role in study design, data collection and interpretation, or the decision to submit the work for publication.
                Categories
                Review Article
                Neuroscience
                Custom metadata
                Computational modeling of cognitive and neuroscience data is an insightful and powerful tool, but has many potential pitfalls that can be avoided by following simple guidelines.

                Life sciences
                computational modeling,model fitting,validation,reproducibility
                Life sciences
                computational modeling, model fitting, validation, reproducibility

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