Childhood vaccination trends during 2019 to 2022 in Tanzania and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

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ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted healthcare systems at all levels globally, notably affecting routine healthcare services, such as childhood vaccination. This study examined the impact of these disruptions on routine childhood vaccination programmes in Tanzania. We conducted a longitudinal study over four years in five Tanzanian regions: Mwanza, Dar es Salaam, Mtwara, Arusha, and Dodoma. This study analyzed the trends in the use of six essential vaccines: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine (bOPV), Diphtheria Tetanus Pertussis, Hepatitis-B and Hib (DTP-HepB-Hib), measles-rubella (MR), Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV), and Rota vaccines. We evaluated annual and monthly vaccination trends using time-series and regression analyses. Predictive modeling was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. A total of 32,602,734 vaccination events were recorded across the regions from 2019 to 2022. Despite declining vaccination rates in 2020, there was a notable rebound in 2021, indicating the resilience of Tanzania’s immunization program. The analysis also highlighted regional differences in vaccination rates when standardized per 1000 people. Seasonal fluctuations were observed in monthly vaccination rates, with BCG showing the most stable trend. Predictive modeling of BCG indicated stable and increasing vaccination coverage by 2023. These findings underscore the robustness of Tanzania’s childhood immunization infrastructure in overcoming the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, as indicated by the strong recovery of vaccination rates post-2020. We provide valuable insights into the dynamics of vaccination during a global health crisis and highlight the importance of sustained immunization efforts to maintain public health.

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A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin

Peng Zhou, Xing-Lou Yang, Xian-Guang Wang … (2020)

Since the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) 18 years ago, a large number of SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) have been discovered in their natural reservoir host, bats 1–4 . Previous studies have shown that some bat SARSr-CoVs have the potential to infect humans 5–7 . Here we report the identification and characterization of a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which caused an epidemic of acute respiratory syndrome in humans in Wuhan, China. The epidemic, which started on 12 December 2019, had caused 2,794 laboratory-confirmed infections including 80 deaths by 26 January 2020. Full-length genome sequences were obtained from five patients at an early stage of the outbreak. The sequences are almost identical and share 79.6% sequence identity to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, we show that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus. Pairwise protein sequence analysis of seven conserved non-structural proteins domains show that this virus belongs to the species of SARSr-CoV. In addition, 2019-nCoV virus isolated from the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of a critically ill patient could be neutralized by sera from several patients. Notably, we confirmed that 2019-nCoV uses the same cell entry receptor—angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2)—as SARS-CoV.

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Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Timothy Roberton, Emily Carter, Victoria Chou … (2020)

Summary Background While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. Methods We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Findings Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18–23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. Interpretation Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

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Aging in COVID-19: Vulnerability, immunity and intervention

Yiyin Chen, Sabra L. Klein, Brian Garibaldi … (2020)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019, moved across the globe at an unprecedented speed, and has caused a profound and yet still unfolding health and socioeconomic impacts. SARS-CoV-2, a β-coronavirus, is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that causes a disease that has been termed the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Clinical experience thus far indicates that COVID-19 is highly heterogeneous, ranging from being asymptomatic and mild to severe and causing death. Host factors including age, sex, and comorbid conditions are key determinants of disease severity and progression. Aging itself is a prominent risk factor for severe disease and death from COVID-19. We hypothesize that age-related decline and dysregulation of immune function, i.e., immunosenescence and inflammaging play a major role in contributing to heightened vulnerability to severe COVID-19 outcomes in older adults. Much remains to be learned about the immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection. We need to begin partitioning all immunological outcome data by age to better understand disease heterogeneity and aging. Such knowledge is critical not only for understanding of COVID-19 pathogenesis but also for COVID-19 vaccine development.

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Journal ID (nlm-ta): Hum Vaccin Immunother

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Hum Vaccin Immunother

Title: Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

Publisher: Taylor & Francis

ISSN (Print): 2164-5515

ISSN (Electronic): 2164-554X

Publication date (Electronic, pub): 23 May 2024

Publication date (Electronic, collection): 2024

Publication date PMC-release: 23 May 2024

Volume: 20

Issue: 1

Electronic Location Identifier: 2356342

Affiliations

[a ]Department of Pharmaceutical Microbiology, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences; , Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

[b ]Department of Research and Development, Afya Intelligence; , Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

[c ]Immunization and Vaccine Development, Ministry of Health Tanzania; , Dodoma, Tanzania

[d ]Department of Universal Health Coverage, Communicable & Non-Communicable Diseases, World Health Organization Inter-Country Support Team for East and Southern African Countries; , Harare, Zimbabwe

Author notes

CONTACT Raphael Zozimus Sangeda sangeda@ 123456gmail.com Department of Pharmaceutical Microbiology, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

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Raphael Zozimus Sangeda https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6574-5308

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Publisher ID: 2356342

DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2356342

PMC ID: 11123454

PubMed ID: 38780570

SO-VID: 88fa6456-8afb-4030-a3c0-aa99823e5a17

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This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.

Childhood vaccination trends during 2019 to 2022 in Tanzania and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

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Most cited references 47

A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin

Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Aging in COVID-19: Vulnerability, immunity and intervention

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