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      Mapping global inputs and impacts from of human sewage in coastal ecosystems

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          Abstract

          Coastal marine ecosystems face a host of pressures from both offshore and land-based human activity. Research on terrestrial threats to coastal ecosystems has primarily focused on agricultural runoff, specifically showcasing how fertilizers and livestock waste create coastal eutrophication, harmful algae blooms, or hypoxic or anoxic zones. These impacts not only harm coastal species and ecosystems but also impact human health and economic activities. Few studies have assessed impacts of human wastewater on coastal ecosystems and community health. As such, we lack a comprehensive, fine-resolution, global assessment of human sewage inputs that captures both pathogens and nutrient flows to coastal waters and the potential impacts on coastal ecosystems. To address this gap, we use a new high-resolution geospatial model to measure and map nitrogen (N) and pathogen—fecal indicator organisms (FIO)—inputs from human sewage for ~135,000 watersheds globally. Because solutions depend on the source, we separate nitrogen and pathogen inputs from sewer, septic, and direct inputs. Our model indicates that wastewater adds 6.2Tg nitrogen into coastal waters, which is approximately 40% of total nitrogen from agriculture. Of total wastewater N, 63% (3.9Tg N) comes from sewered systems, 5% (0.3Tg N) from septic, and 32% (2.0Tg N) from direct input. We find that just 25 watersheds contribute nearly half of all wastewater N, but wastewater impacts most coastlines globally, with sewered, septic, and untreated wastewater inputs varying greatly across watersheds and by country. Importantly, model results find that 58% of coral and 88% of seagrass beds are exposed to wastewater N input. Across watersheds, N and FIO inputs are generally correlated. However, our model identifies important fine-grained spatial heterogeneity that highlight potential tradeoffs and synergies essential for management actions. Reducing impacts of nitrogen and pathogens on coastal ecosystems requires a greater focus on where wastewater inputs vary across the planet. Researchers and practitioners can also overlay these global, high resolution, wastewater input maps with maps describing the distribution of habitats and species, including humans, to determine the where the impacts of wastewater pressures are highest. This will help prioritize conservation efforts.Without such information, coastal ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them will remain imperiled.

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          Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture.

          Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100-110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ~1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO(2)-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ~3 Gt y(-1) and N use ~250 Mt y(-1) by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ~0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ~1 Gt y(-1), and global N use of ~225 Mt y(-1). Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.
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            The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

            Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.
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              HUMAN ALTERATION OF THE GLOBAL NITROGEN CYCLE: SOURCES AND CONSEQUENCES

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SoftwareRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: MethodologyRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS One
                plos
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                10 November 2021
                2021
                : 16
                : 11
                : e0258898
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
                [2 ] National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
                [3 ] Center for International for International Earth Science Information Network, the Columbia Climate School and its Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States of America
                [4 ] Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
                Duy Tan University, VIET NAM
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4806-0462
                Article
                PONE-D-21-15046
                10.1371/journal.pone.0258898
                8580218
                34758036
                86d313a4-7a52-4992-8695-f2f9b6494058
                © 2021 Tuholske et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 6 May 2021
                : 7 October 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 0, Pages: 16
                Funding
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001263, National Philanthropic Trust;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001263, National Philanthropic Trust;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001263, National Philanthropic Trust;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001263, National Philanthropic Trust;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001263, National Philanthropic Trust;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: NSF Division of Social and Economic Sciences
                Award ID: 1832393
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007183, University of California, Santa Barbara;
                Award ID: Presidential Dissertation Year Fellowship
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005695, Earth Institute, Columbia University;
                Award ID: Postdoctoral Research Fellows Program
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014585, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014585, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014585, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis;
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014585, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis;
                Award Recipient :
                Support for BSH, JCV, CPT, MF, and GB was provided by National Philanthropic Trust. Additional funding for CPT came from the UC President's Dissertation Year Fellowship program and the Earth Institute Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, Columbia University. Partial support for KC was provided by National Science Foundation SES-1832393. Funding for computation infrastructure used by CT, JCV, GB and MF was provided by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis.
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                Research Article
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                All data are available at Knowledge Network for Biocomplexity (KNB) https://github.com/OHI-Science/GlobalWasteWater.

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