Impacts of Aging Agricultural Labor Force on Land Transfer: An Empirical Analysis Based on the China Family Panel Studies

Abstract

Aging is an important trend in the global demographic, with rural population aging becoming a significant challenge due to its faster pace and profound implications. Although the most significant impact of the aging agricultural labor force occurs in agricultural production and land use, little is known about their relationship. Based on the 2010–2018 data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies, this study uses the panel probit model to analyze the impact of the aging agricultural labor force on land transfer and tests its influence mechanism from the aspects of health effect and pension insurance effect. The results show the following: (1) there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the aging of the agricultural labor force and land rent-in—with the deepening of the aging of the agricultural labor force, the aging of the agricultural labor force shifts from promoting land rent-in to inhibiting it; (2) there is a U-shaped relationship between the aging of the agricultural labor force and land rent-out—with the deepening of the aging of the agricultural labor force, the aging of the agricultural labor force shifts from inhibiting land rent-out to promoting it; and (3) the impact of the aging agricultural labor force on land rent-in and rent-out is significantly affected by farmers’ health levels, however pension insurance does not play a significant moderating role. Therefore, the government should strengthen the land transfer market and improve the level of pension insurance for the elderly rural agricultural labor force.