Diabetic retinopathy: Looking forward to 2030

Deep learning is a family of computational methods that allow an algorithm to program itself by learning from a large set of examples that demonstrate the desired behavior, removing the need to specify rules explicitly. Application of these methods to medical imaging requires further assessment and validation.

OBJECTIVE To examine the global prevalence and major risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (DR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) among people with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A pooled analysis using individual participant data from population-based studies around the world was performed. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify all population-based studies in general populations or individuals with diabetes who had ascertained DR from retinal photographs. Studies provided data for DR end points, including any DR, proliferative DR, diabetic macular edema, and VTDR, and also major systemic risk factors. Pooled prevalence estimates were directly age-standardized to the 2010 World Diabetes Population aged 20–79 years. RESULTS A total of 35 studies (1980–2008) provided data from 22,896 individuals with diabetes. The overall prevalence was 34.6% (95% CI 34.5–34.8) for any DR, 6.96% (6.87–7.04) for proliferative DR, 6.81% (6.74–6.89) for diabetic macular edema, and 10.2% (10.1–10.3) for VTDR. All DR prevalence end points increased with diabetes duration, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure levels and were higher in people with type 1 compared with type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS There are approximately 93 million people with DR, 17 million with proliferative DR, 21 million with diabetic macular edema, and 28 million with VTDR worldwide. Longer diabetes duration and poorer glycemic and blood pressure control are strongly associated with DR. These data highlight the substantial worldwide public health burden of DR and the importance of modifiable risk factors in its occurrence. This study is limited by data pooled from studies at different time points, with different methodologies and population characteristics.

To develop consensus regarding clinical disease severity classification systems for diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema that can be used around the world, and to improve communication and coordination of care among physicians who care for patients with diabetes. Report regarding the development of clinical diabetic retinopathy disease severity scales. A group of 31 individuals from 16 countries, representing comprehensive ophthalmology, retina subspecialties, endocrinology, and epidemiology. An initial clinical classification system, based on the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study and the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy publications, was circulated to the group in advance of a workshop. Each member reviewed this using e-mail, and a modified Delphi system was used to stratify responses. At a later workshop, separate systems for diabetic retinopathy and macular edema were developed. These were then reevaluated by group members, and the modified Delphi system was again used to measure degrees of agreement. Consensus regarding specific classification systems was achieved. A five-stage disease severity classification for diabetic retinopathy includes three stages of low risk, a fourth stage of severe nonproliferative retinopathy, and a fifth stage of proliferative retinopathy. Diabetic macular edema is classified as apparently present or apparently absent. If training and equipment allow the screener to make a valid decision, macular edema is further categorized as a function of its distance from the central macula. There seems to be a genuine need for consistent international clinical classification systems for diabetic retinopathy and diabetic macular edema that are supported with solid evidence. The proposed clinical classification systems provide a means of appropriately categorizing diabetic retinopathy and macular edema. It is hoped that these systems will be valuable in improving both screening of individuals with diabetes and communication and discussion among individuals caring for these patients.