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      Rethinking Risk in National Security 

      The Swans to Worry About Are Gray

      other
      Palgrave Macmillan US

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          The case for motivated reasoning.

          Ziva Kunda (1990)
          It is proposed that motivation may affect reasoning through reliance on a biased set of cognitive processes--that is, strategies for accessing, constructing, and evaluating beliefs. The motivation to be accurate enhances use of those beliefs and strategies that are considered most appropriate, whereas the motivation to arrive at particular conclusions enhances use of those that are considered most likely to yield the desired conclusion. There is considerable evidence that people are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at, but their ability to do so is constrained by their ability to construct seemingly reasonable justifications for these conclusions. These ideas can account for a wide variety of research concerned with motivated reasoning.
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            Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration? Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making

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              The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable

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                Book Chapter
                2016
                : 89-99
                10.1007/978-1-349-91843-0_7
                bf4d0372-4e49-4800-a909-f264fce4134e
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