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Summary Background Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. Funding Wellcome Trust.
The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013.
South Asians have high rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) at younger ages compared with individuals from other countries but the reasons for this are unclear. To evaluate the association of risk factors for AMI in native South Asians, especially at younger ages, compared with individuals from other countries. Standardized case-control study of 1732 cases with first AMI and 2204 controls matched by age and sex from 15 medical centers in 5 South Asian countries and 10,728 cases and 12,431 controls from other countries. Individuals were recruited to the study between February 1999 and March 2003. Association of risk factors for AMI. The mean (SD) age for first AMI was lower in South Asian countries (53.0 [11.4] years) than in other countries (58.8 [12.2] years; P or =once/wk, 10.7% vs 26.9%). However, some harmful factors were more common in native South Asians than in individuals from other countries (elevated apolipoprotein B(100) /apolipoprotein A-I ratio, 43.8% vs 31.8%; history of diabetes, 9.5% vs 7.2%). Similar relative associations were found in South Asians compared with individuals from other countries for the risk factors of current and former smoking, apolipoprotein B100/apolipoprotein A-I ratio for the top vs lowest tertile, waist-to-hip ratio for the top vs lowest tertile, history of hypertension, history of diabetes, psychosocial factors such as depression and stress at work or home, regular moderate- or high-intensity exercise, and daily intake of fruits and vegetables. Alcohol consumption was not found to be a risk factor for AMI in South Asians. The combined odds ratio for all 9 risk factors was similar in South Asians (123.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 38.7-400.2] and in individuals from other countries (125.7; 95% CI, 88.5-178.4). The similarities in the odds ratios for the risk factors explained a high and similar degree of population attributable risk in both groups (85.8% [95% CI, 78.0%-93.7%] vs 88.2% [95% CI, 86.3%-89.9%], respectively). When stratified by age, South Asians had more risk factors at ages younger than 60 years. After adjusting for all 9 risk factors, the predictive probability of classifying an AMI case as being younger than 40 years was similar in individuals from South Asian countries and those from other countries. The earlier age of AMI in South Asians can be largely explained by higher risk factor levels at younger ages.
